Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-04 07:24Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, with a slight decline expected as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited. The coal production in China has shown a continuous year-on-year decline from July to September, influenced by the government's intervention in the coal sector [1]. Supply Side - The coal production in China for July, August, and September was 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons respectively, showing a year-on-year decline. For Q4, production is expected to slightly decrease due to "overproduction checks," maintaining a monthly output of 390-400 million tons from October to December, with an annual production estimate of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30-50 million tons year-on-year [1]. Demand Side - The total electricity consumption in society from August to September has increased to 4.6%, a significant rise from the 2.5% growth in Q1. The annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%. Despite entering the typical demand off-season in September and October, demand has shown unexpected strength, with daily consumption in East China reaching the highest level in the past five years [2]. Thermal Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port in Northern China was 778 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. Domestic supply is stable while imports continue to decline. The overall supply is expected to maintain a steady decline, while demand has significantly improved, leading to a potential rebound in Q3 profitability [3]. Coking Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the off-season [4]. Industry Review - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton (0.0%), while the price of port-level coking coal was 1718 yuan/ton (3.3%). The total inventory of coking coal across three ports was 2.837 million tons (5.4%), with a utilization rate of 73.44% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle Port in Australia increased by 1 USD/ton (2.0%), while the cost of domestic Q5500 coal was 15 yuan/ton higher than that of imported coal [5].