金荣中国：现货黄金开盘后小幅走低，目前暂交投于3980美元附近

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices opened lower in the Asian session on November 4, currently trading around $3980, after fluctuating near $4000 on November 3, with a low of $3963 and a high of $4030, closing at $4001.16 per ounce. Despite a 53% increase in gold prices this year, there has been a decline of over 8% since the historical peak on October 20, driven by uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, the U.S. government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax exemption policy [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, leading to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 100% to 65.3%, which negatively impacted non-yielding gold [3][4]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with a rare 10-2 vote reflecting differing views on monetary policy. Dovish members advocate for significant rate cuts, while hawkish members express concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target [4][5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, contributing to a rise in the dollar index, which reached a new high of 99.89, further suppressing gold prices. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating continued contraction, and key labor statistics are on hold due to the shutdown [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $3925 to $4025, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $30 to $50 [5][6]. - The daily chart shows gold prices closing with a small body, indicating a struggle to break above the $4030 resistance level, suggesting continued contention between bulls and bears within the $3920 to $4030 range [6][7].