Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has officially matched the longest record in history, lasting 35 days since October 1, with no resolution in sight [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by 2% to 3% [1] - The absence of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls (NFP) and GDP, has left the market in a "blind flying" state, increasing reliance on private sector indicators like the ISM manufacturing PMI [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The market is still digesting the Federal Reserve's recent policy shift, which has led to a tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations [3] - Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks following a 25 basis point rate cut have downplayed expectations for another cut in December, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising short-term U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] - The tightening liquidity has put pressure on risk assets, including stocks, emerging market currencies, and cryptocurrencies [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to the Fed's "hawkish rate cut" and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $110,000 [8] - A negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has re-emerged, where each dollar strength puts pressure on major digital assets [9] - Altcoins have experienced deeper declines, with Ethereum (ETH) struggling to maintain the $3,800 level, and smaller tokens lagging behind [10] Group 4: Future Market Focus - The market remains focused on whether the U.S. government shutdown can be resolved soon, with new budget deadlines approaching that may force negotiations [6] - Reports indicate that moderate Republicans and Democrats are informally discussing potential compromises to restart the government [6] - Until clear progress is made, uncertainty will remain high, potentially triggering risk-averse sentiment in the market [7]
：Ultima Markets:政治僵局与流动性紧缩，加密市场持续承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-04 07:45