Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-04 07:51Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that overseas markets will become the growth engine for BYD (002594) in the next decade, with an increase in sales forecasts for overseas markets outside the US by 5% to 14%, reaching 1.5 million to 3.5 million units from 2026 to 2035 [1] Group 1: Sales and Profit Forecasts - The net profit forecast for BYD from 2025 to 2030 has been adjusted down by 14% and then up by 9% [1] - Target prices for BYD's H-shares and A-shares have been raised by 8% to HKD 141 and CNY 144, respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The average annual compound growth rate of profits is expected to reach 30% from 2025 to 2028, with the contribution of overseas profits increasing from 21% in 2024 to 60% in 2028 [1] Group 2: Market Penetration and Competitive Advantage - Key overseas markets are currently lagging behind China in electric vehicle penetration by about four years, but it is expected that new model launches will drive penetration to reach the level of China in 2028 by 2035, with a market size of 28 million units [1] - BYD's vehicle models have competitive advantages, with some being among the best-selling in the market [1] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the global new energy vehicle market due to its established model portfolio, continuous R&D investment, and expanding sales network [1] Group 3: Sales Volume Adjustments - Overall sales forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 6%, while forecasts for 2026 to 2030 have been increased by 3% [1]