百利好丨美联储官员齐“放鸽”，12月降息仍存变数

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policy, with Stephen Milan advocating for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction if future data aligns with expectations, while Lisa Cook maintained a cautious stance, supporting recent cuts but remaining undecided on December's actions [1] Group 2 - The latest economic data revealed that the U.S. manufacturing activity index for October was 48.7, below the market expectation of 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, indicating that manufacturing has been in contraction for eight consecutive months due to output slowdown and weak market demand [3] - The report indicated that 12 manufacturing sectors experienced contraction, particularly in traditional industries like textiles, apparel, and furniture, while six sectors, including non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment, showed growth [3] - The prices paid index for raw materials dropped to 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, significantly below the market expectation of 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, suggesting ongoing relief from upstream price pressures [3][4] - The decline in the prices paid index reflects a nearly 12-point drop since the peak earlier this year, indicating that the most severe phase of manufacturing cost pressures driven by policy factors may have ended [4] - Due to the government shutdown affecting the release of key official statistics, economic experts and policymakers are increasingly relying on non-official data, such as manufacturing surveys, to assess the overall economy and labor market conditions [4]