华源证券：2026年购置税补贴减半 预计电车销量仍可维持中高个位数增长

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that from 2024 to the end of 2025, new energy vehicles (NEVs) will continue to be exempt from vehicle purchase tax, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle. However, from 2026 to 2027, the purchase tax will be halved, with a maximum exemption of 15,000 yuan per vehicle. Despite the current NEV penetration rate exceeding 50%, it is expected to maintain a slight growth due to quality supply, channel expansion, and potential subsidy sharing by manufacturers and dealers [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Purchase Tax Policy Changes - The vehicle purchase tax exemption for NEVs has been in place since August 2014, with no limits until the end of 2023. From 2024 to 2025, the exemption will be capped at 30,000 yuan per vehicle. In 2026-2027, the exemption will be reduced to 15,000 yuan per vehicle, with stricter technical requirements for subsidies [2][3]. Impact of Tax Subsidy Reduction - The reduction in purchase tax subsidies will significantly affect approximately 90% of NEV consumers, especially those purchasing vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan, who will experience a noticeable increase in tax burden [2][3]. - The expected reduction in subsidies will be the highest historically, particularly affecting vehicles priced below 450,000 yuan, with about 40% of plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles potentially losing their subsidy eligibility due to increased technical requirements [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Sales Projections - Despite the anticipated negative impact of subsidy reductions on NEV sales, the overall market is expected to maintain slight growth due to factors such as quality supply and the gradual expansion of NEV channels. The projected number of NEV insurance registrations for 2025 is approximately 12.83 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%, with a 9% growth expected in 2026 [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see structural opportunities despite modest growth in NEV sales. Recommendations include focusing on high-end manufacturers less affected by subsidy reductions, companies with strong new vehicle cycles, and those leveraging technological innovations like autonomous driving to create additional demand [6].