降息周期下，黄金资产为何值得布局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in the gold market, with spot gold closing at $4024.46 per ounce on October 30, marking a 2.4% increase, the largest single-day gain since the market correction in October [1] - The strong demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases and investments in gold bars and coins, with global gold demand reaching a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025 [1] - The performance of the technology sector in the U.S. stock market is under pressure, particularly due to Meta's net profit decline and increased AI capital expenditure expectations, leading to a significant sell-off in tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that every rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve since 2000 has led to substantial appreciation in gold assets, with gold prices increasing by 53.8% in the current cycle from September 2024 to October 2025 [2] - Gold ETFs have consistently captured market allocation demand during these cycles, with their net value and scale growth closely tied to the strengthening of gold asset attributes in a rate-cutting environment [2] Group 3 - Currently, gold ETFs face a mixed market environment with short-term pressures from expectations of improved international trade relations, which diminish gold's safe-haven appeal, while also experiencing significant support from the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut lowers the holding cost of gold and potentially weakens the dollar, providing foundational support for gold prices and gold ETFs [5] - As of the end of October, the probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to 72.8%, indicating market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [5][7] Group 4 - Investment strategies for gold ETFs should balance short-term volatility with long-term trends, as historical patterns indicate that gold typically rises following the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle [8] - Despite short-term pressures from trade relations, the ongoing rate-cutting cycle and structural support from global central bank gold purchases suggest that the upward momentum in gold prices will continue [8] - Gold's attributes as an inflation hedge and a counter to geopolitical risks, combined with global monetary easing, position it as a "ballast" in asset allocation [8]