香港第一金解析市场关键变量：黄金区间拉锯格局未改，震荡行情下仍偏回落

Group 1 - The recent "gold tax" policy in China is not a new tax but an optimization of existing tax rules related to gold trading, aimed at differentiating between investment and non-investment gold and standardizing tax collection [2] - The new policy, effective from November 1, has led to immediate reactions in the market, with banks like ICBC and CCB temporarily halting gold buying and physical exchange services during the adjustment period [2] - Retail gold stores, such as Chow Tai Fook, have also responded quickly to the new regulations, indicating a rapid transmission of effects to the downstream market [2] Group 2 - The international gold price is primarily influenced by global economic conditions, risk sentiment, and the US dollar index, rather than domestic tax policies, with current prices fluctuating around $4,000 per ounce [3] - The potential increase in upstream costs may be passed on to consumers, leading to higher expenses for purchasing gold jewelry and bars, which could result in increased bills for ordinary consumers [3] Group 3 - The ongoing US government shutdown has lasted for 34 days, causing significant impacts on various sectors, including aid to low-income families and military pay, with $1.7 trillion in discretionary funds for the new fiscal year currently on hold [6] - Recent negotiations have shown positive signals, with bipartisan discussions in Congress indicating a potential resolution, although key issues like healthcare costs remain contentious [7] - The US Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed during the previous administration, which could have substantial fiscal implications, including a potential refund of over $100 billion if deemed illegal [8]