Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-04 09:14Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities projects Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 and 2026 to reach 473.9 billion and 606.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30% and 28% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 43.3 billion and 54.4 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting year-on-year increases of 59% and 25% [1] - The target price is set at 58.8 HKD, with a "Buy" rating, indicating a favorable valuation for Xiaomi [1] Revenue and Profit Projections - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue is anticipated to reach 110.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is expected to exceed 10.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] Automotive Business Insights - The automotive segment is projected to achieve profitability in Q3, with a delivery volume of 109,000 units and an average selling price (ASP) showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The gross margin for the automotive sector is expected to slightly decrease to over 25% due to a lower proportion of higher-end models [2] - The delivery volume in September surpassed 40,000 units, with expectations for continued growth in October [2] Smartphone Market Performance - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipment for Q3 2025 is estimated at approximately 43.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and maintaining a global market share of 13.5% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to decline slightly quarter-on-quarter, influenced by changes in product mix [1] - The high-end strategy is progressing, with the 17 series expected to outperform the 15 series in terms of lifecycle sales, and a significant increase in the proportion of Pro and ProMax models [1]