华尔街警告：市场对通胀过于乐观，小心“鹰派意外”风险

Core Insights - Recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a significant reduction in inflation concerns within financial markets, but analysts from Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan warn that this optimism may be premature [1][3] - Investors might be underestimating the multiple upward price pressures in the economy, which could result in a more hawkish stance from central banks than anticipated, potentially impacting stock and bond markets [1][5] Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - Deutsche Bank reported on November 3 that the one-year inflation swap in the U.S. experienced its largest weekly decline since May due to trade easing [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish signals, particularly from Chairman Powell, indicate that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, contrasting with market expectations [3] - JPMorgan emphasized that the inflation impact from tariffs, although delayed, will eventually manifest and may be more persistent than expected [3][7] Group 2: Risks from Inflation Resilience - If inflation proves to be more resilient than anticipated, investors face multiple risks, including a potential hawkish shift from central banks that could pressure asset prices [5][8] - Historical patterns show that hawkish turns by central banks often coincide with significant stock market sell-offs, as seen in 2015-2016, late 2018, and 2022 [5][8] Group 3: Factors Influencing Inflation - Deutsche Bank identified six key factors that may keep inflation above expectations, including strong demand-side pressures and the delayed effects of monetary easing [6] - Recent global economic activity data has exceeded expectations, with the Eurozone's October composite PMI reaching a two-year high and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized growth for Q3 [6] - The impact of tariffs is still unfolding, with U.S. tariff revenues projected to exceed $200 billion this year, and companies planning to pass on a significant portion of these costs to consumers [7] Group 4: Market Implications - A hawkish surprise from central banks could lead to renewed support for physical assets like gold, which historically perform well during inflationary periods [8] - The report indicates that if inflation remains high, it could lead to a significant sell-off in equities, as evidenced by past central bank actions [8]