ATFX汇评：美元指数四连阳，今日触及100关口，金价再失守4000大关

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated strong differing opinions on discussions for December's rate decision during the October meeting [1] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, appointed by Trump, firmly supports a 50 basis point cut, arguing that the current 25 basis point cut is too conservative [1] - Fed's Daly believes inflation remains above target levels and suggests that the federal funds rate cannot decrease rapidly [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Their Impact - The divergence in the Fed's stance is attributed to conflicting labor market and inflation data [3] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm payroll additions consistently below the 100,000 mark, while inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, with September's core CPI and nominal CPI both at 3% [3] - The inflation rate has plateaued, making further declines challenging, and excessive rate cuts could lead to a rapid rebound in inflation [3] Group 3: External Influences on Monetary Policy - Trump's tariff policies and strong intervention in the Fed have increased uncertainty in monetary policy [3] - Trump advocates for rapid and substantial rate cuts, while Powell maintains a cautious approach, leading to speculation about the next Fed chair [3] - Tariff policies may elevate import prices, posing a potential inflationary risk, which is a primary concern for Powell [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is in a bottoming phase under a bearish trend, with a smooth upward movement since September 17 [5] - The dollar index reached a high of 99.96, nearing the 100 mark, indicating a potential completion of the bottoming structure [5] - If the resistance level at 100.23 is breached, it could confirm the completion of the bottoming phase, suggesting a gradual strengthening of the dollar index [5]