国际金价下跌，老铺黄金们却越来越贵？｜2025消费趋势跟踪

Core Viewpoint - The global and domestic gold markets are experiencing significant divergence, with international gold prices fluctuating while domestic gold jewelry prices remain high, reflecting the different investment and consumption attributes in varying market environments [1][3]. Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high of over $4,300 per ounce before dropping below $3,950 per ounce, indicating volatility driven by macroeconomic signals and geopolitical factors [1][3]. - The short-term pressure on international gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, technical corrections, and a stronger dollar [3]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, long-term support for gold prices remains, as central banks globally increased their gold purchases by 28% in Q3 2025, totaling 220 tons [3]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Market - Domestic gold jewelry prices are experiencing a high premium, with brands like Lao Pu adjusting prices by 18% to 25%, and Chow Tai Fook's gold price rising from 1,198 RMB per gram to 1,259 RMB per gram [1][4]. - The pricing structure of domestic gold jewelry includes a combination of raw gold price, processing fees, brand premiums, and operational costs, which account for 30% to 50% of the total price, leading to price rigidity [4][5]. - The domestic market shows resilience in demand, with consumers shifting towards new consumption patterns, such as "small weight gold jewelry" and "old-for-new" exchanges, despite a decrease in gold consumption volume [5][6]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, exempts value-added tax for standard gold transactions, aiming to differentiate tax treatment based on investment and non-investment uses, enhancing market transparency [2][6]. - The differentiated tax arrangements are expected to influence trading decisions and the flow of gold in the market, promoting a more efficient and regulated gold market [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The divergence between investment and consumption markets for gold is likely to persist, with investment gold relying on its safe-haven attributes and branded gold jewelry focusing on cultural premiums and craftsmanship [6]. - Investors are advised to avoid misconceptions equating jewelry gold with investment gold, while consumers should prioritize craftsmanship and brand value within their budget [6].