跌！刹不住！期钢4连阴！双焦跌超2%！钢价能否撑住？

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, influenced by various factors including pollution alerts and price adjustments in raw materials [1][12]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The third round of price increases for coke is set to take effect on November 5, with major steel mills in Tangshan and other regions planning to raise prices by 50-55 CNY per ton, providing strong cost support for steel prices [2]. - As of late October, the social inventory of steel in 21 cities reached 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month-on-month, but still significantly higher than the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices due to weak demand and supply constraints [3]. - Multiple regions in Henan have initiated an orange alert for heavy pollution, which may lead to production restrictions at some steel mills, potentially tightening supply and supporting steel prices [4]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The domestic steel market saw a slight decline today, with overall transaction volumes remaining weak [5]. - All major futures contracts closed lower, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [7]. - Several steel mills have announced price reductions for construction materials, with specific decreases of 10-20 CNY per ton reported [9][10]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore has slightly decreased, with a notable drop in shipments from Australia and an increase in domestic arrivals, leading to a weak demand environment [11]. - Coke prices are expected to stabilize as the third round of price increases is implemented, although demand remains weak due to reduced operating rates at steel mills [11]. - Scrap steel prices have also seen a slight decline, driven by decreased consumption from electric arc furnace steelmakers and overall weak demand [11]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall sentiment in the steel market is cooling, with expectations of stable to slightly weaker prices in the near term due to compressed steel mill profits and ongoing environmental restrictions [12].