【UNforex财经事件】避险需求回升支撑黄金反弹，美元与美联储鹰派立场限制涨幅

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic uncertainties due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in gold prices, while the dollar's retreat from previous highs has provided additional support for gold [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reach historic highs, with ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans affecting economic stability [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance limits the dollar's further decline, which in turn suppresses gold's upward potential [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are around 65%, impacting gold prices negatively [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4025 (200-hour moving average) and $4045-$4046, with a potential breakthrough leading to a rebound towards the $4100 mark [1] - Support levels for gold are noted at approximately $3963-$3952, with further attention on $3940 and potential declines to the $3910-$3900 range [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Increased safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold's short-term performance, despite pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance and dollar performance [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk events that may influence gold's short-term trends [2]