独家专访亚开行前行长中尾武彦：超宽松货币政策行至“十字路口”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has implemented a historic interest rate hike, ending an eight-year negative interest rate policy, but the normalization of monetary policy remains a challenging task due to various uncertainties in the market [1][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Challenges - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%, marking its first increase since 2007 [1]. - The former president of the Asian Development Bank, Takahiko Nakao, emphasizes the importance of a robust monetary policy normalization plan to avoid further depreciation of the yen and to facilitate the exit from ultra-loose monetary policies [1][6]. - Concerns about asset bubbles are resurfacing globally, with warnings about the risks associated with rapid increases in real estate and stock prices, particularly in Asian countries [1][10]. Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing three major risks: 1. Increased government spending and expanding deficits leading to excessive national debt accumulation, particularly in the U.S. and Japan [2][10]. 2. Stock prices potentially being overvalued due to expectations of returns from the AI revolution [2][10]. 3. Risks associated with private debt, as non-bank institutions engage in extensive financial intermediation with insufficient regulation [2][10]. Historical Lessons - Reflecting on Japan's past, it is noted that during the 1985 Plaza Accord, the rapid appreciation of the yen led to overly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to the subsequent asset bubble [3][4]. - After the bubble burst in 1990, Japan's policy response was inadequate, failing to recognize the severe negative impacts of the bubble's collapse, which resulted in significant economic downturns [4]. Future Economic Potential - Japan possesses significant economic potential and should focus on converting technological advancements into economic benefits while increasing investment in research and development [5]. - The country has successfully emerged from deflation and should wisely utilize fiscal and monetary policies to support growth [5]. Regional Cooperation and Global Trade - In the context of rising global trade tensions, strengthening regional cooperation through agreements like RCEP and the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement is essential for mitigating unilateralism risks [7]. - The collaboration between Japan and China in technology and other sectors is seen as a way to address global challenges, particularly in the face of demographic changes and labor shortages [8][9].