每日论金 | 本周市场重点关注这两点

Group 1 - The core logic supporting international gold prices remains unchanged despite short-term volatility, with a solid bullish trend expected to continue [1] - Three main factors driving the long-term positive outlook for gold include: 1. Normalization of global central bank gold purchases driven by "de-dollarization" demand from emerging markets, providing a solid bottom support for the gold market [1] 2. High U.S. debt levels and declining real interest rates post-Federal Reserve rate cuts, enhancing gold's appeal as an alternative reserve asset [1] 3. Global monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. government shutdown risks and regional conflicts, injecting risk premium into the market and reinforcing gold's value [1] Group 2 - The global fiscal deficit is expected to continue rising, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious yet overall accommodative policy stance, keeping risk-free interest rates low [2] - The attractiveness of gold as a non-credit-backed safe-haven asset is increasing, supported by stable central bank gold purchasing trends and dual benefits from policy and demand sides [2] - Key market focus for the week includes U.S. manufacturing PMI and delayed employment data, which will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, as well as developments in global geopolitical situations [2] - From a technical perspective, short-term gold price support is noted in the $3950-$3970 per ounce range, while resistance is observed in the $4050-$4070 per ounce area [2]