美元霸权要完？中国发行美元美债，美国以后别想收割世界了！

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of up to $4 billion in U.S. dollar sovereign bonds by China in Hong Kong aims to reshape the global financial credit landscape through international capital voting, rather than addressing liquidity needs [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sovereign Debt Value - The core value of sovereign debt lies in the market-based pricing of national credit, with interest rates reflecting market recognition of a country's creditworthiness [3]. - China's dollar sovereign bond interest rates are expected to be lower than those of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially approaching the Federal Reserve's 3.75%-4% federal funds rate range in October 2025, indicating high global market recognition of China's sovereign credit [3]. Global Financial System Dynamics - Historically, the U.S. has relied on two main paths for capital extraction: creating regional conflicts to attract safe-haven capital and establishing "debt traps" through institutions like the IMF and World Bank [5][6]. - China's bond issuance fundamentally disrupts this model, providing a new avenue for debt relief to developing countries, thus avoiding asset acquisition by Western capital at low prices [6][11]. Stability and Capital Flow - China is positioned as a "new safe haven" for global capital, with a stable economic foundation, the largest foreign exchange reserves, and a growing trade surplus, contrasting with the U.S.'s rising debt and inflation pressures [8][10]. - A shift of even one-third of capital that would have remained in the U.S. to China could significantly weaken the U.S.'s capital extraction capabilities [10]. Internationalization of Renminbi - The bond issuance includes a repayment mechanism with an option for renminbi settlement, promoting the internationalization of the currency and reducing reliance on the dollar [13]. - As the use of the dollar contracts, idle capital may return to the U.S., exacerbating domestic inflation, while China's regular issuance of dollar sovereign bonds opens a new channel for dollar allocation, altering the existing dollar dominance [15]. Restructuring Global Credit System - This initiative is not a challenge to existing rules but a market-driven approach to reconstruct the global capital credit system, offering a more stable asset allocation choice globally [17][18]. - The gradual replacement of a unipolar hegemony with a diversified credit system could lead to a fairer and more reasonable global financial order [18].