美股大牛市，突遭警告！

Core Viewpoint - Ed Yardeni, a prominent Wall Street analyst, warns that extreme bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market may signal a potential downturn, predicting a 5% decline in the S&P 500 index by the end of December [1][2]. Market Sentiment - The bullish-to-bearish ratio in the Investors Intelligence survey surged to 4.27 as of October 29, indicating overly optimistic market sentiment [2]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish streaks since 1950 [2]. - Retail investor bullish sentiment has exceeded the historical average of 37.5% for five consecutive weeks [2]. Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index is currently trading 13% above its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential overextension in the rally [2]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, nearing its largest gap since July 2024 [3]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) rising 18 basis points to 4.22% on October 31, the largest single-day increase in a year [4][5]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) reached a historical high of $50.35 billion, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [4][5]. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has forced the Treasury to increase cash balances from $300 billion to $1 trillion over the past three months, draining market liquidity [5]. - The liquidity tightening effect of the government shutdown is comparable to multiple rounds of interest rate hikes, as it has withdrawn $700 billion from the market [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market and a rebound in risk assets [6]. - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially releasing significant cash flow into the market [6].