黄金税改的影响与启示|迎接黄金ETF的“黄金时代”

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulations on gold in China are reshaping the investment logic in the gold market, particularly affecting the trading of physical gold and promoting alternatives like gold ETFs [1][3]. Policy Changes - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, introduces a dual classification management system for gold transactions, categorizing them into on-market and off-market, both subject to a 13% value-added tax (VAT) [4][6]. - The policy distinguishes between investment gold (e.g., gold bars with purity over 99.95%) and non-investment gold (e.g., jewelry and industrial gold) [6][7]. - The new regulations impose stricter VAT collection on physical gold, reducing the tax credits available to businesses, which may lead to increased costs passed on to consumers [7][8]. Market Impact - For investment gold, institutions can still obtain tax-deductible invoices when purchasing from gold exchanges, but the sales to downstream dealers will only allow for regular invoices, reducing their tax deduction capabilities [8][11]. - For jewelry purchases, the input tax deduction drops from 13% to 6%, potentially increasing costs by 60-70 yuan per gram of gold, which could lead to higher retail prices [12][13]. - The new tax structure aims to curb speculative behaviors in the gold market and promote orderly trading practices [16][17]. Investment Strategy - The long-awaited tax reform signals a shift in asset allocation strategies, encouraging investors to consider gold ETFs and futures instead of physical gold, which may become less attractive due to rising costs [15][17]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties remains intact, with gold ETFs providing a more accessible and cost-effective investment vehicle [24][28]. Gold ETF Advantages - Gold ETFs allow investors to trade gold like stocks, with lower entry costs and no stamp duty, making them a favorable option in the current tax environment [30][31]. - The structure of gold ETFs addresses common pain points for retail investors, such as high storage costs and complex purchasing processes associated with physical gold [31][32]. - The shift towards gold ETFs reflects a broader understanding of gold's role in asset allocation, moving away from the notion that physical gold is the only form of investment [33][34].