Ge Long Hui·2025-11-04 11:31Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue accelerating growth driven by AI and an expedited overseas expansion strategy, with the main platform benefiting from synergies in food delivery and a meta logic interpretation, maintaining steady growth [1] E-commerce - The e-commerce business is projected to achieve revenue of 127.18 billion yuan in FY26Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [2] - The main platform's GMV is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, supported by the Taobao flash purchase business, with CMR increasing by 10% [2] - The launch of the AI-powered shopping assistant is anticipated to enhance user conversion rates through personalized recommendations [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to generate revenue of 38.52 billion yuan in FY26Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [3] - Alibaba Cloud's market share in domestic AI cloud reached 35.8%, leading the market [3] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with new cloud computing nodes planned in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands [3] AIDC (International Digital Commerce) - AIDC is projected to achieve revenue of 36.96 billion yuan in FY26Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [4] - The launch of the cross-border e-commerce AI tool is expected to significantly reduce product selection time, enhancing operational efficiency for merchants [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 are adjusted to 1,016.5 billion yuan, 1,144.4 billion yuan, and 1,261.2 billion yuan, respectively, due to accelerated domestic cloud demand [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 125.8 billion yuan, 173.8 billion yuan, and 200.6 billion yuan [5] - The estimated market value of the company is 3,569.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 204.96 HKD [5]