ADM cuts 2025 profit outlook on weaker crush margins, shares tank

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its full-year 2025 profit outlook due to weaker crush margins and delays in U.S. biofuel policy, resulting in a nearly 11% drop in its shares during pre-market trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ADM now anticipates adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, a decrease from the previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share [4]. - The company reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ending September 30, surpassing the average estimate of 85 cents [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, resulting in a 21% decline in operating profit to $379 million in the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [2]. - Major agriculture processors, including ADM, are contending with volatile commodity cycles, soft crop prices, and uncertain energy policies [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates that policy clarity and improving global trade flows will support growth in 2026, with expectations for biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for the industry [3].