Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-04 12:21Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite a month-on-month growth in China's electric vehicle market in October, Nomura Securities remains cautiously optimistic, predicting a reshaping of the competitive landscape as the 2026 tax exemption policy approaches [1] Group 2 - In October 2025, Chinese electric vehicle OEMs generally achieved month-on-month growth in wholesale shipments, with significant performance disparities among brands [2] - BYD delivered 436,900 vehicles in October, a month-on-month increase of 11.1%, but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% due to a high base in 2024 [2] - Geely (including Zeekr) showed strong performance with total new energy vehicle sales of 178,000 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [2] - Leap Motor achieved a record high delivery of 70,300 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 84.1% [2] - Xpeng, NIO, and Xiaomi also reported significant year-on-year growth, with Xpeng delivering 42,000 units (up 75.7%) and NIO delivering 40,400 units (up 92.6%) [2] - Li Auto's performance was weak, with deliveries of 31,800 units in October, a year-on-year decline of 38.2% [2] Group 3 - Starting in 2026, the reduction of the electric vehicle purchase tax exemption by half is expected to pressure market demand, particularly in the first quarter [3] - To mitigate this challenge, several automakers have introduced measures, including subsidies for consumers who order vehicles in October and November 2025 but cannot take delivery by year-end, offering up to 15,000 yuan [3] - The scope of the subsidy is expanding to include lower-priced models, potentially covering vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan [3] Group 4 - Nomura Securities holds a cautious outlook for the 2026 Chinese electric vehicle market, noting that competition will intensify due to persistent oversupply and unchanged production capacity [4] - Companies with rising market shares in the mass market are expected to maintain their advantages, while BYD is anticipated to launch a new strategy in early 2026 to improve its operations [4] - Demand uncertainty stemming from the tax policy adjustment and potential consumer demand fatigue will be critical factors influencing the market in 2026 [4] Group 5 - Based on company performance and industry trends, Nomura Securities provides investment ratings and recommendations [5] - Buy ratings are given to BYD and Xpeng, with expectations of improved operations and market position due to new strategies and model launches [5] - Neutral ratings are assigned to NIO and Li Auto, facing challenges related to production capacity and negative impacts from accidents [5] - Short-term focus is recommended on companies with purchase tax subsidies and strong order reserves, while long-term prospects favor leading manufacturers with strong technological upgrades and overseas expansion capabilities [5]