高盛突然唱空美股：指数外强中干，个股表现两极分化裂痕明显

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Goldman Sachs' unexpected bearish stance on the US stock market, describing the current market performance as "bizarre" and indicating a divergence within the market despite the S&P 500 index appearing strong on the surface [1][2]. Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has remained above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive days, marking one of the longest streaks on record, but this strength is superficial as internal vulnerabilities are becoming apparent [2]. - The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows significantly exceeds those reaching new highs, indicating severe internal market fragmentation [2]. - Despite a robust earnings season where approximately 70% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings, with 64% exceeding expectations, the market's reaction has been muted, with these companies only outperforming the S&P by 32 basis points, well below the typical 98 basis points [2][3]. Group 3 - Capital expenditures in the AI sector are surging, with expectations for an increase of $50-60 billion over the next 12 months, and projections for major tech companies' capital expenditures reaching $120 billion for META, $122 billion for GOOGL, $140 billion for MSFT, and $161 billion for AMZN by 2026 [3]. - The total issuance of AI-related bonds this year has reached $220 billion, accounting for 29% of the total supply of dollar-denominated bonds, primarily driven by the TMT and utility sectors [4]. Group 4 - The credit market is showing a cautious trend, with AI capital expenditures leading to increased leverage, and the net supply of investment-grade bonds expected to rise to $670 billion by 2026 [4]. - The consumer environment is showing signs of weakness, with declining sales reported by retailers and restaurants, indicating tightening consumer budgets, although high-income groups continue to show resilience in online spending [4]. Group 5 - Goldman Sachs suggests that growth momentum may rebound, potentially supporting the stock market early next year, but the optimistic sentiment around large-cap tech stocks has made the risk-reward ratio unfavorable [5]. - A new low-quality stock basket (GSXULOWQ index) has been introduced to identify high-leverage, low-profitability stocks with AI-related risks, which could serve as tactical hedging or shorting tools for investors [5].