央行重启公开市场国债买卖，稳中偏松政策取向料将延续

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed open market operations for government bonds after a ten-month hiatus, indicating a supportive stance towards liquidity and the bond market [1][3]. Market Operations - In October, the PBOC conducted short-term reverse repos amounting to 47,453 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 5,953 billion yuan after a total of 53,406 billion yuan was recalled [1]. - The PBOC executed a buyout reverse repo of 17,000 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan after recalling 13,000 billion yuan [1]. - The announcement revealed a net injection of 20 billion yuan from government bond transactions, marking the first such operation since January 2025 [1][3]. Bond Market Performance - As of November 4, short-term government bond yields have risen, with the one-year yield at 1.3350% (up 1.5 basis points) and the ten-year yield at 1.7905% (up 0.1 basis points) [3]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's 20 billion yuan net purchase reflects a cautious approach to avoid rapid declines in interest rates while supporting market liquidity [3]. Economic Implications - The resumption of government bond trading is seen as a signal to stabilize macroeconomic conditions for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, enhancing long-term liquidity support for the banking system [3][6]. - The PBOC plans to conduct a 7,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo on November 5, with a term of three months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][6]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC will continue to utilize buyout reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to inject liquidity into the market, while the recent bond trading resumption does not alter expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q4 [6][7]. - The PBOC's policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with potential increases in net bond purchases to counterbalance the maturity of other monetary tools [6][7].