流动性“堰塞湖”即将决堤？万亿财政现金或引爆风险资产

Core Insights - A significant liquidity crunch triggered by the U.S. Treasury's cash hoarding is pushing financial markets towards a critical turning point [1][3] - The Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance has surpassed $1 trillion, leading to a sharp decline in bank reserves and creating a potential "powder keg" for the next market movement [3][9] - The current funding market tension is evident through various key indicators, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising sharply [4][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The use of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached a historical high of $50.35 billion last week, with current usage at $14.75 billion, the second-highest since its establishment [1][4] - SOFR surged by 22 basis points to 4.22%, marking the largest single-day increase in a year, with a spread of 32 basis points over the federal funds rate corridor, the highest since the March 2020 market crisis [1][4] - The overnight general collateral repo rate fluctuated between 4.14% and 4.24%, significantly above the Fed's interest on reserves rate of 3.9% [4][6] Group 2: Treasury's Role - The TGA balance has reached over $1 trillion, the highest in nearly five years, as the Treasury absorbs market cash at an unprecedented rate [3][9] - The Treasury's cash hoarding has led to a drastic reduction in bank reserves, which have fallen to $2.85 trillion, the lowest since early 2021 [11] - Foreign commercial banks have seen their cash assets decrease by over $300 billion since July, indicating that the Treasury's cash accumulation is primarily sourced from drained bank liquidity [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current liquidity squeeze, while dangerous, may signal a significant reversal opportunity once the political deadlock is resolved, potentially injecting thousands of billions into the economy [15][19] - The anticipated release of liquidity could trigger a rush for risk assets, particularly sensitive categories like Bitcoin and small-cap stocks, leading to a sharp market rally by year-end [17] - Despite a potentially optimistic medium-term outlook, short-term risks remain, with the possibility of a vicious cycle similar to the 2019 repo crisis if funding conditions worsen before the government reopens [18][19]