日韩股指高位跳水，东南亚股走向取决于美元和本地改革

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high of 52434.06 points before closing down 1.74% at 51497.2 points on November 4, while the KOSPI index fell by 2.37% to 4121.74 points, marking the largest decline among Asia-Pacific indices on that day [1][4] - Other Asia-Pacific markets also experienced declines, with the Australian S&P/ASX200 index dropping nearly 1%, and stock markets in Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore also recording losses [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown, which entered a critical week on November 3, is expected to reduce the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, leading to an estimated economic output loss of $7 billion to $14 billion that cannot be recovered [1] - The strong U.S. dollar has been identified as a factor suppressing equity asset valuations, alongside the recent sell-off of high-flying assets and ongoing trade uncertainties [2] Japanese and Korean Markets - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a cumulative increase of over 15% since early October, with a year-to-date rise of 29.8%, while the KOSPI index surged nearly 72% this year, driven by factors such as corporate governance reforms and AI industry growth [3] - The recent downturn in Japanese and Korean markets is attributed to profit-taking and the strengthening dollar, which raised concerns about market intervention and policy uncertainty [4] Southeast Asian Markets - Despite good performance in October, Southeast Asian markets have recently weakened, with the Thai SET index up 2.77% and the Indonesian JKSE up 1.28% for the month, but facing declines thereafter [5][6] - Vietnam's stock market outperformed its Southeast Asian counterparts, attributed to institutional reforms and foreign investment expectations following its upgrade to emerging market status by FTSE [6][7] Currency and Intervention Concerns - The Japanese yen has been weakening against the dollar, prompting warnings from the Japanese government about potential market intervention, with the yen reaching 154 against the dollar [7] - Market analysts suggest that while the risk of intervention is rising, actual intervention is not expected in the short term, as the last intervention occurred in July of the previous year [7]