Should You Buy Moderna Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Moderna (MRNA) is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, with sales estimated at $860 million and a loss of $2.15 per share, indicating a significant decline from the previous year [1] - The consensus estimate for loss per share has widened from $9.50 to $9.74 over the past month [1] Earnings Performance - Moderna has beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 37.78%, including a 28.76% surprise in the last reported quarter [2][3] Revenue Expectations - The majority of Q3 revenues are anticipated to come from COVID-19 vaccines, with combined sales estimated at $762 million, reflecting a significant decline due to reduced demand for boosters [5][6] - Minimal sales of the RSV vaccine, mResvia, are expected at $30 million, significantly lower than competitors GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo [7] Pipeline Developments - Moderna is developing over 40 mRNA-based candidates across various clinical stages, with a focus on updates following the recent setback in the CMV vaccine program [8] - The pivotal Phase III study for mRNA-1647 failed to meet primary efficacy endpoints, leading to its discontinuation, although it continues to be studied in mid-stage trials [9] - Investors are also focused on mRNA-1083, a COVID-19/influenza combination vaccine, which is on track for FDA resubmission [10] - Intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed with Merck, is undergoing pivotal studies, and updates on its progress are anticipated [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Moderna's shares have decreased by 40%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [13][14] - The stock is trading at a premium valuation, with a price/sales ratio of 3.14 compared to the industry average of 2.33 [16] Investment Outlook - Despite significant declines in revenue, Moderna's cash position of approximately $7.5 billion allows for continued investment in pipeline development [18] - The recent CMV vaccine setback has raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory and reliance on other late-stage assets [19][20] - Plans to launch 10 new marketed products by 2028 targeting a market exceeding $30 billion are now clouded by the CMV failure and underwhelming sales of mResvia [21] - Current premium valuation and downward revisions to earnings estimates suggest caution for investors considering building positions in Moderna stock [22]