Sunrun to Release Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is set to release its third-quarter 2025 results on November 6, following a significant earnings surprise of 694.4% in the previous quarter, with expectations of continued growth driven by new partnerships and rising demand for solar solutions [1][9]. Factors Impacting Q3 Performance - In July 2025, Sunrun and Tesla introduced a new home energy plan aimed at enhancing solar production and energy independence for Texas customers, which is expected to improve customer acquisition and retention [2]. - The company anticipates an 8% growth in Aggregate Subscriber Value for Q3 2025, indicating a robust customer base and increased long-term value generation [3]. - A projected 58% increase in Contracted Net Value Creation suggests significant growth in new contract values and profitability, likely leading to improved margins [4]. - Strong sales volume for solar energy systems, driven by increasing demand, is expected to positively impact Sunrun's top-line performance for the quarter [4]. Financial Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is set at $0.01 per share, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 102.7% [6]. - Revenue expectations are pegged at $604.92 million, indicating a 12.6% year-over-year increase [6]. - The estimated solar capacity installed is 251.1 megawatts (MW), up 9.3% from the previous year, with subscriber additions expected to reach 32,624, a 7.5% increase [7]. Earnings Prediction - The quantitative model does not predict an earnings beat for Sunrun this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -4,160.8%, indicating challenges in meeting earnings expectations despite positive growth indicators [8].