华尔街日报酸评:中国正用我们的武器打败我们,中国是最大赢家?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-04 17:03

Core Insights - The global financial focus is shifting from the US, which is burdened by $38 trillion in debt and has recently cut interest rates, to China, which has successfully issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, attracting $40 billion in global capital [1][3][4] Group 1: US Financial Situation - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates could worsen the debt crisis, while lowering them would signal failure, with the IMF predicting the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 133% by 2025, the highest since World War II [3][4] - The US struggles to maintain its national creditworthiness, even facing challenges in funding its nuclear arsenal [3][4] Group 2: China's Financial Strategy - China has maintained the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at over $3.2 trillion for 18 consecutive months, and its recent issuance of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong is part of a strategy to counter the US dollar [4][11] - The issuance of $20 billion in US bonds last year attracted $40 billion in subscriptions, demonstrating China's ability to leverage its financial instruments to challenge US dominance [6][11] Group 3: Global Financial Dynamics - Countries like Argentina and Turkey, suffering from dollar dependency, are looking to China for financial support, indicating a shift in global financial alliances [6][12] - China's approach contrasts with the US's coercive tactics, as it builds trust through cooperation rather than dominance [11][12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Implications - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are increasing their research efforts in China, focusing on sectors like consumption, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a strategic investment shift [15][16] - If China normalizes the issuance of dollar-denominated bonds, it could influence global capital flows by $1-1.5 trillion over the next five years, reducing the Federal Reserve's control over global interest rates [16][17] Group 5: Philosophical and Strategic Perspectives - The operation of dollar bonds is seen as a tactical maneuver, with capital flows representing the momentum, and the cooperative model embodying the overarching strategy [19]