央行重启买债操作 债市延续修复

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by the central bank's resumption of government bond trading operations and improved market sentiment following the recent US-China summit [1][2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield has broken below the 1.8% mark, reflecting a positive shift in market expectations and a return to fundamental trading logic [1][5]. - The central bank's decision to restart government bond trading is expected to enhance liquidity in the banking system and stabilize market expectations, which is crucial for the bond market's recovery [2][5]. Group 2 - Recent economic data shows that the manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49% in October, indicating ongoing demand-side pressures, despite some seasonal effects [3][4]. - The central government's fiscal measures, including the allocation of 500 billion yuan to local governments, aim to support economic recovery and complement monetary policy [2][4]. - The bond market has largely priced in recent negative factors, including the easing of US-China trade tensions and the impact of new fund redemption regulations [4][5]. Group 3 - The overall macroeconomic environment for the bond market in the fourth quarter suggests limited upward movement in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to range between 1.8% and 1.9% [5]. - The bond market's upward potential is constrained by a cautious approach from the central bank regarding risk control, making it unlikely for interest rates to replicate the significant declines seen in December of the previous year [5].