果然不出所料：美国又准备对华加税！这次，中国没有退路

Group 1 - The U.S. has not abandoned its trade war strategy, as evidenced by the recent resumption of investigations against China and threats of increased tariffs related to rare earth elements [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized China's control over the rare earth market and indicated that the U.S. is preparing to raise tariffs if China continues to restrict rare earth exports [1][3] - Despite the recent trade discussions in Busan, the U.S. has shown a pattern of inconsistency and pressure tactics, revealing underlying anxieties in its trade negotiations [3][4] Group 2 - China currently holds approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to reduce its dependence on China in the short term [3] - The U.S. is attempting to form a "rare earth alliance" with countries like Japan and Thailand, but experts suggest it will take 5 to 10 years to establish a complete refining supply chain [3][4] - The U.S. Trade Representative announced ongoing investigations into the Phase One trade agreement, which could lead to the reactivation of Section 301 tariffs against China [6][8] Group 3 - The recent trade discussions resulted in a temporary agreement where China would pause new rare earth export controls, while the U.S. would suspend certain restrictions for a year [8][10] - Key issues remain unresolved, such as whether the U.S. will suspend the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods and the status of chip restrictions, which are critical to finalizing any trade agreement [8][10] - China is adopting a cautious approach in negotiations, emphasizing the need for clear execution mechanisms to avoid falling into a "commitment trap" due to the U.S.'s past inconsistencies [8][10] Group 4 - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as its tariff strategy appears to be losing effectiveness, leading to a defensive posture in trade negotiations [6][10] - The potential for renewed conflict remains, particularly if the U.S. perceives that China's rare earth export controls are not lifted as expected [10] - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China indicates that the latter remains the U.S.'s primary strategic rival, necessitating a firm stance from China in future negotiations [10]