2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-11-04 23:04Core Viewpoint - The flu poses significant public health risks, especially during the peak travel season coinciding with the flu season, necessitating effective antiviral treatments and preventive measures [1][5][7]. Market Demand - The optimization of China's exit and entry policies has led to a surge in outbound travel, with projections indicating over 155 million outbound trips by 2025, contributing to the global spread of flu [5]. - The World Health Organization estimates around 1 billion seasonal flu cases annually, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths, highlighting the severity of flu outbreaks [5]. - The overlap of the winter-spring travel peak and flu season raises concerns for public health systems, particularly for vulnerable populations [5][6]. Treatment Options - Antiviral treatment is crucial for flu management, with the most effective results achieved within 48 hours of symptom onset [1][7]. - The primary antiviral medications available in China include Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil, both effective against influenza A and B [1][8]. - The expert consensus emphasizes vaccination as the primary preventive measure against flu, particularly for high-risk groups [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The flu medication market in China has become increasingly competitive, especially after the expiration of Oseltamivir's patent in 2016, leading to a surge in generic versions [2][9]. - As of November 2025, there are nearly 140 approved products related to Oseltamivir in China, indicating a highly saturated market [9]. - Baloxavir Marboxil, a second-generation flu treatment, has gained market traction since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [10][11]. Market Growth Potential - The Chinese flu medication market was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [11]. - Projections indicate a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [11].