：2025美元流动性专题之二：美元流动性的三维度观测报告

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of USD liquidity through a three-dimensional framework focusing on the federal funds market, repo market, and offshore USD market, monitoring liquidity changes across scale, price, and policy dimensions [1][3]. Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market is identified as the cornerstone of USD liquidity, with total reserves reflecting the banking system's liquidity level. As of September 2025, total reserves reached $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a reasonable liquidity level [1][11]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been decreasing since June 2022, but the reverse repo tool has acted as a buffer, preventing significant reserve withdrawal [1][3]. - The discount window is underutilized due to a "stigma effect," primarily activated during market crises [15]. Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for USD liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) being a key pricing benchmark. As of September 2025, the SOFR-ON RRP spread has increased to 16 basis points, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealers' Treasury reverse repo to reserve balances was 0.88 in September 2025, showing an upward trend but still below crisis levels, suggesting that while liquidity is tightening, it is not at crisis levels [2][18]. - The standing repo facility established in 2021 provides a liquidity ceiling, supporting the market during disturbances [19]. Offshore USD Market - The offshore USD market has evolved towards "bondification" and "derivatization," with bonds replacing loans as the primary means of credit expansion. As of 2024, offshore USD bond balances have increased by 213.8% compared to 2007 [25]. - The liquidity in the offshore market is challenging to monitor through quantity indicators, with currency swap basis becoming a core observation metric. The trend of the currency swap basis has narrowed in 2025, indicating ample offshore USD liquidity [25][30]. - The Federal Reserve's central bank liquidity swaps and FIMA repo facility are essential tools for maintaining offshore market liquidity stability, especially during crises [34][39].