美国政府关门“势创纪录”，市场已然撑不住，周四或是“破局时刻”？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is pushing financial markets towards a dangerous edge, but there are signs of potential breakthroughs in bipartisan negotiations, with some Republican lawmakers optimistic about reaching an agreement this week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On "Black Tuesday," major U.S. markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops in nearly a month, particularly affecting technology and semiconductor sectors [1]. - Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, leading to over $1.3 billion in liquidations in the cryptocurrency market [1]. - The U.S. dollar index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching a three-month high, while the British pound, offshore yuan, and commodities faced widespread pressure [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Crisis - The government shutdown has exacerbated a growing liquidity crisis, with the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance surging from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion in the past three months, effectively withdrawing over $700 billion from the market [2]. - This large-scale liquidity withdrawal has tightened market conditions, comparable to multiple interest rate hikes, with key financing rates under significant stress [2]. - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) spiked by 22 basis points, indicating that actual financing costs have not decreased despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Political Developments - Some Republican senators express confidence that the political deadlock may end this week, with discussions around local elections influencing negotiations [3]. - The impact of the shutdown on public welfare programs is becoming increasingly evident, adding pressure on both parties to reach an agreement [3]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the government is likely to reopen within the next two weeks [3]. Group 4: Democratic Party Divisions - Internal divisions within the Democratic Party are emerging, with moderate members considering a compromise to temporarily reopen the government in exchange for future commitments from Republicans regarding healthcare subsidies [5]. - This proposed "reopen first, vote later" strategy has angered progressive members, who view it as a betrayal of working families [6].