AI盛宴背后：科技巨头豪掷3500亿美元，投资回报成新考题

Core Insights - The AI investment wave has become a focal point in the market following the third-quarter earnings reports from the "Big Seven" tech companies in the U.S. Despite robust overall earnings and optimistic guidance, investor reactions remain cautious due to rising AI capital expenditures [1] - Analysts suggest that while high valuations may keep some funds on the sidelines, the current tech giants possess solid profit models and cash flow foundations, distinguishing them from the internet bubble of the 1990s [1] - The combined capital expenditures of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are projected to reach $350 billion this year, comparable to Germany's annual infrastructure budget, with global AI-related infrastructure investments expected to exceed $4 trillion by 2030 [1] Group 1: AI Spending and Cash Flow - AI-related expenditures, including AI chips, data centers, and cloud computing, have become the primary focus of capital spending for tech giants, with these expenditures now accounting for approximately 60% of their operating cash flow, a historical high [2] - Amazon's latest earnings report indicates a nearly 70% decline in free cash flow over the past 12 months, while Meta has forecasted a significant increase in future capital expenditures [2] - Microsoft reported quarterly spending close to $35 billion and warned that expenditures will continue to rise throughout the year, raising concerns about the pressure on free cash flow [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite unprecedented AI investment levels, market focus is shifting from "technological breakthroughs" to "financial returns," with uncertainty surrounding the timely return of value to companies making large-scale AI investments [3] - Meta's announced capital expenditure plan of approximately $70 billion aims to strengthen AI infrastructure, but short-term returns are limited, highlighting the "burn rate" effect in the early stages of AI commercialization [3] - The "Big Seven" now account for 37% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, with Nvidia alone nearing an 8% weight, suggesting that lower-than-expected AI investment returns could amplify market volatility [3]