东京的房价，没有回头路

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo real estate market is experiencing a dramatic surge in prices, with new home prices in the core area exceeding 133 million yen, reflecting an annual increase of over 20% [1]. Group 1: Price Surge and Market Dynamics - The average price of new homes in Tokyo's core area has surpassed 1.33 billion yen, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1]. - Second-hand apartments are also seeing significant price increases, with 16% selling for over 100 million yen, a price point unimaginable three years ago [1]. - Rental prices have risen by 8%, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary people to afford housing [3]. Group 2: Socioeconomic Divide - Tokyo is becoming increasingly divided into two worlds: one for the wealthy who can easily purchase luxury homes, and another for ordinary workers who cannot afford even 70 million yen apartments [1][5]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in Tokyo has reached 12 times, significantly above the global warning line of 8 times [5]. Group 3: Migration Trends - Many families are being forced to leave their long-time communities and migrate to the suburbs in search of affordable housing, leading to a mini-boom in areas like Saitama and Chiba [6]. - The trend of "scale down" migration is becoming prevalent, with residents commuting for hours to find affordable living spaces [6]. Group 4: Structural Issues and Market Forces - The current situation is not viewed as a bubble but rather a new normal, with many experts suggesting that a 40% drop in housing prices is necessary for affordability, which is deemed nearly impossible [4][6]. - The driving forces behind the price surge include global capital influx, a tight supply of land, and Japan's long-term low-interest rate environment [11][21]. Group 5: Global Capital Influence - Global capital is recognizing the long-underestimated value of Tokyo's core assets, pushing prices to align with those of similar global cities [12][15]. - The influx of foreign investment is creating a competitive environment where local residents are forced to compete with global capital, leading to a disconnect between property prices and local income levels [15][16]. Group 6: Economic and Social Implications - The ongoing housing crisis is contributing to a structural change in Japanese society, solidifying a "rentier class" that accumulates wealth through asset appreciation rather than labor [24]. - The high cost of living and unstable housing expectations are discouraging young people from starting families, potentially exacerbating Japan's declining birth rate [25][26].