全线大跌!碳酸锂供应端扰动不断

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have significantly declined, with the main contract closing down 4.34% at 78,560 yuan/ton [1][2]. Price Movements - The prices for various lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: - Contract 2511: 77,160 yuan, down 4.55% - Contract 2512: 78,460 yuan, down 4.36% - Contract 2601: 78,560 yuan, down 4.34% - Contract 2602: 78,500 yuan, down 3.99% - Contract 2603: 78,460 yuan, down 3.94% - Contract 2604: 79,060 yuan, down 3.59% - Contract 2605: 79,060 yuan, down 3.59% - Contract 2606: 79,120 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2607: 79,100 yuan, down 3.40% - Contract 2608: 79,620 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2609: 79,660 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2610: 79,680 yuan, down 3.32% - Continuous contract: 77,160 yuan, down 4.55% - Weighted average: 78,693 yuan, down 4.09% - Main continuous contract: 78,560 yuan, down 4.34% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the decline in lithium carbonate prices is primarily due to supply-side uncertainties, particularly regarding the resumption of production at Jiangxi lithium mines [2][3]. - Despite the price fluctuations, the fundamental balance of lithium carbonate remains tight, with a continued expectation of high production levels in the coming months [3]. - In October, China's lithium carbonate production increased by approximately 5.7% month-on-month to 92,300 tons, with expectations for continued high output in November and December [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with a weekly average inventory reduction of about 1,369 tons since early August [3][4]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with downstream demand projected to increase by 3% month-on-month in November [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the actual resumption of production at Jiangxi lithium mines is a key factor to monitor [4]. - While supply concerns have eased, the strong growth in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets is expected to sustain overall demand [4]. - If demand does not continue to grow and production increases as anticipated, the market may enter a period of inventory accumulation, potentially leading to a price turning point for lithium carbonate [4].