张尧浠：美政府停摆创纪录、金价仍有再走低风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international gold prices, influenced by factors such as the U.S. government's record shutdown and the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, which have led to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased pressure on gold prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 4, gold opened at $4001.88 per ounce, reached a high of $4005.56, but ultimately closed at $3931.87, down $70.01 or 1.75% [1]. - The price fluctuation for the day was $76.79, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The article highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, including the U.S. ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which are expected to be better than previous values and may negatively impact gold prices [3][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.090%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook suggests that gold bears have the upper hand, with potential further declines below $3900 unless there is a surprising positive employment report [4]. - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices may face selling pressure, with potential targets at $3800 or even $3700 if bearish trends continue [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching new highs around $5000 due to ongoing economic uncertainties and potential future Fed rate cuts [6]. - Factors such as the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation, and global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long run [6][8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3900 and $3850, while resistance levels are at $3970 and $4000 [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.10 and $45.50, with resistance at $47.70 and $48.00 [12].