黄金早参 | 美联储表态分化，市场缺乏共识，金价再度走弱

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices weakened again due to increased market uncertainty stemming from the Federal Reserve's policy divergence and the interruption of economic data releases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 4, gold prices fell to a low of $3037 during trading, with COMEX gold futures closing down 1.81% at $3941.30 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.62%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) dropped by 3.49% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's lack of data guidance due to the government shutdown has resulted in mixed signals, failing to exert a strong influence on the market [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 70.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.9% [1] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 55.8%, with a 19.3% chance of no change, and a 24.8% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts from Chaos Tiancheng Futures noted that the recent short-term correction in gold prices has lowered volatility, and optimistic expectations have not materialized, leading to a potential rise in risks [1] - Key market indicators to monitor include the government shutdown situation and liquidity release, as precious metals remain in a suppressed oscillation phase awaiting a driving force [1]