十年国债ETF（511260）盘中飘红，四季度债市逐步显现回暖迹象

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises continues to contract, and the export growth rate may weaken in the fourth quarter, compounded by persistently weak domestic demand and low social investment returns, which limit the upward space for interest rates [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises is in continuous contraction [1] - The year-on-year export growth rate is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [1] - Domestic demand remains weak, affecting overall economic performance [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Anti-involution policies have been implemented in some sectors, but more demand-side policies and stimuli are needed to address negative feedback on prices [1] - Historical experience indicates that supply-side policies do not directly transmit to macro interest rates [1] - Recent bond market adjustments are attributed more to anticipatory actions and the stock-bond seesaw effect rather than fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Ten-Year Treasury ETF Performance - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs since its inception, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since inception [1] - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1]