开源证券：2026年前后更可能是“平顶慢牛”而非“尖顶短牛”

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to transition from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" around 2026, likely resulting in a "flat slow bull" market rather than a "sharp short bull" [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a "flat slow bull" phase post-2025, with a focus on profit recovery as the new stable center for the capital market [2] - The securities ratio is a key indicator for assessing the market's bull or valuation space, with a ratio of 1.1 being a significant threshold [2] - Profit recovery is expected to follow a "factory-shaped" recovery pattern, with earnings bottoming out by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as technology growth, PPI improvement, anti-involution trends, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [3][5] - The "technology first" theme is highlighted as a dominant trend in the current bull market, with a focus on relative profitability advantages and global semiconductor cycles [3] - The transition from valuation-driven investments to factor-based investments is emphasized, with important factors including marginal changes in profit growth, revenue growth, and return on equity [3] Group 3: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with moderate monetary easing and potential increases in the broad deficit scale [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for stimulating domestic demand and consumption, particularly in services and rural areas [5][6] - Supply-side adjustments are necessary, including enhancing service supply and addressing excess capacity through anti-involution measures [7]