Spotify 的新涨价周期，还能再飞一次吗？

Core Insights - Spotify's Q3 2025 earnings report showed mixed results, but the market reacted positively due to better-than-expected profit margins [1][8] - The company implemented nearly 30 product updates aimed at enhancing user experience, which contributed to improved profit margins despite increased costs [1][21] - Revenue guidance for Q4 remains weak, with expected revenue of €4.5 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8%, below market expectations of 11.5% [1][14] Profit Margin Improvement - Spotify's gross margin and operating margin exceeded expectations, attributed to effective cost control in marketing and personnel expenses [1][21] - Significant reductions in operating expenses were noted, particularly in social charges, which are linked to employee benefits [1][21] - The company has accumulated nearly €9.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, with a free cash flow of €800 million in Q3, representing 19% of total revenue [4][21] Revenue Guidance and Performance - Q4 revenue guidance of €4.5 billion is slightly below market expectations, indicating potential challenges in revenue growth [1][14] - The advertising segment has underperformed, with a decline in ad revenues and challenges in conversion rates [2][14] - Subscription revenue growth has been slow, with a focus on audiobooks that have not significantly impacted overall performance [2][14] User Metrics and Growth Potential - Monthly active users (MAU) increased by 17 million to 713 million, with premium subscribers growing by 5 million [11] - The company anticipates a net addition of 35 million MAUs and 8 million premium subscribers in Q4, indicating a steady growth trajectory [11] - The pricing strategy in key markets, particularly the U.S. and Australia, is expected to drive future growth, especially with the recent price increases [9][20] Market Expectations and Strategic Outlook - The market remains cautious about Spotify's ability to improve average revenue per user (ARPU) and subscription conversion rates [2][14] - The company is expected to benefit from a new pricing cycle starting in Q4, which could enhance profitability in the long term [10][24] - The impact of currency fluctuations and increased operational costs may temporarily offset the benefits of price increases [10][24]