IC Markets官网：黄金反弹只是暂时？技术面偏弱短期或再下探

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a mild rebound after a significant drop, with prices currently fluctuating around $3938 per ounce, following a nearly 2% decline the previous day, attributed to a strong dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [1]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold remains weak, with short-term price movements indicating further downside potential. Key moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 20-period simple moving average at $4002 and the 100-period moving average at $4105, indicating downward pressure [3]. - On the daily chart, gold is still in a correction phase, trading below the 20-day moving average at $4088. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned at $3596 and $3359, respectively, indicating a long-term upward trend but weakened short-term momentum [4]. Market Influences - U.S. economic data is crucial for determining gold's direction, with the ADP employment report being a key focus. The market anticipates an addition of 25,000 jobs in October, which could impact the dollar's performance and subsequently gold prices [4]. - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from over 90% to approximately 71%, which directly influences gold's attractiveness as it does not yield interest in a high-rate environment [4]. Price Levels and Support - Gold shows signs of stabilization after short-term selling but lacks a clear reversal signal. A price recovery above $4088 could restore upward momentum, while failure to rebound may lead to testing long-term support levels at $3596 or $3359 [5].