金价：大家要有心理准备了，银行疯狂囤金，一场货币战争正在上演

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is fluctuating between $4000 and $4100 per ounce, with significant attention from global investors, reminiscent of historical patterns from 2010 and 2015, driven by central bank gold purchases and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [1][6]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold buying has become a mainstream strategy, with a net purchase of 256 tons in the first four months of 2025, over 80% from emerging markets. The People's Bank of China has increased its reserves to 2300 tons, with countries like Poland and Turkey accelerating their purchases [3][4]. - The share of gold in foreign exchange reserves has risen from 24% to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%, indicating a trend towards "de-dollarization" [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, the first since 2020, with expectations of continued easing. This shift alters the pricing logic of gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [6]. - Historical context shows that gold prices can rise even during rate hike cycles, suggesting potential for significant upward movement in the current easing environment [6]. Technical Analysis and Market Trends - Current gold price movements show similarities to the patterns observed before the 2015 breakout, with strong support levels and significant inflows into gold ETFs, totaling $47 billion in 2025, the second-highest on record [8]. - Domestic markets are also experiencing a surge, with gold jewelry prices exceeding 863 yuan per gram and investment gold bar sales increasing by 24% [8]. Long-term Implications - The long-term value of gold is closely tied to the global desire for stable value, especially in the context of rising debt levels and geopolitical tensions. The current environment suggests that gold may serve as a critical asset amidst uncertainties in the monetary system [12].