36天，美国联邦政府“停摆”创纪录！航空濒临关闭，军饷发放困难，债务增超6000亿美元......

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, marking the longest shutdown in history, primarily due to partisan disagreements over key issues like healthcare subsidies [2][4] - The economic impact of the shutdown is becoming increasingly severe, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projecting a potential decline in the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 [2][11] - Key pressure points driving negotiations include disruptions in air traffic, the suspension of food stamp benefits for 42 million people, and impending military pay issues [2][18] Economic Impact - The CBO warns that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, the GDP growth rate could drop by 1.5 percentage points, and if it extends to eight weeks, the decline could reach 2 percentage points [11] - The economic losses from the shutdown are projected to be permanent, with estimates of $11 billion in lost output after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks [11] - Financial markets are reacting negatively, with a significant drop in stock prices and a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [17][15] Political Dynamics - The shutdown is a result of failed negotiations between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats insisting on including healthcare subsidy extensions in any funding bill [6][10] - The Senate has seen 14 failed votes during the shutdown, highlighting the procedural challenges and the use of filibuster tactics by Democrats to leverage their demands [8][10] - Political analysts suggest that the pressure from the economic and social consequences of the shutdown may force both parties to reach a compromise soon [18][24] Potential Resolutions - Analysts predict that a compromise may involve a "clean" continuing resolution in exchange for future negotiations on healthcare subsidies, allowing both parties to save face [24][25] - The earliest potential date for the end of the shutdown is suggested to be November 16, as various pressures mount [21][23] - Observational signals for a nearing agreement include the reconvening of the House, positive developments in Senate negotiations, or a shift in President Trump's stance [25]