马云预言正在应验？明年的房价，3个真信号已悄悄出现

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market reflects a stark contrast between high-priced urban areas and low-priced regions, highlighting a significant divide in housing affordability and demand dynamics [1][3]. Population Structure - The primary demographic supporting the housing market, individuals aged 25-44, has decreased from 40.2% in 2010 to 31.8% currently, with a continued decline expected over the next decade [4]. - The population of the post-90s and post-00s generations is 120 million less than that of the post-80s generation, facing challenges such as slowing income growth and historically low marriage rates [4]. - The aging population, with over 310 million individuals aged 60 and above, exacerbates demand shrinkage, leading to increased housing supply due to vacant homes left by deceased elderly individuals [4]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - Over the past two decades, developers have constructed 600 million housing units, sufficient for 3 billion people, while China's population is only 1.4 billion, indicating a surplus of over 100% [6]. - The planned construction of 6 million affordable housing units by 2025 will further pressure the market for commercial housing [6]. - High inventory levels are evident, with 760 million square meters of unsold commercial housing in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to aggressive pricing strategies by developers [6]. Policy Shift - The government is shifting its focus towards affordable housing, planning to build 6 million units over five years, which will divert demand from the commercial housing market [8]. - Financial leverage is tightening, with first-time home loan rates dropping to a historical low of 3.05%, but lending standards becoming stricter, effectively closing off speculative avenues for investors [9]. - The introduction of a property tax trial is anticipated, which will increase holding costs and further diminish the investment appeal of real estate [9]. Urban Differentiation - The real estate market is experiencing irreversible differentiation, with core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen seeing slight price increases due to their scarcity and high demand [11]. - Conversely, non-core cities are facing significant price declines, with some areas experiencing a drop of up to 50% from peak values, primarily due to population outflows [11]. - This differentiation indicates a shift from the era of guaranteed profits in real estate to a more selective approach in choosing cities and locations for investment [11]. Conclusion - The debate surrounding the rationalization of housing prices raises questions about whether real estate can still symbolize wealth as it loses its financial attributes, prompting a potential shift towards viewing housing primarily as a necessity rather than an investment [13].