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Core Insights - The national average mortgage default rate has risen to 3.7%, significantly higher than the 1.6% recorded in 2024, indicating a troubling trend in mortgage repayments [2] - Approximately 4% of households are now in default, translating to around 4 million families unable to continue repaying their mortgages [3] Economic Context - Many individuals are facing financial difficulties due to job losses or reduced incomes, making it challenging to meet mortgage obligations [5] - The decline in property values has left many homeowners in a precarious position, where their property is worth less than the outstanding mortgage [7][8] Banking Sector Implications - The total personal housing loan balance is close to 38 trillion yuan, and if 4% of these loans default, it could result in a staggering 1.5 trillion yuan in potential losses for banks [11] - Banks are faced with a dilemma: either continue lowering interest rates to help borrowers or risk increasing bad debts [11][15] Policy Responses - The central bank is considering a one-time personal credit relief policy to assist those who defaulted between 2020 and 2022 but have since repaid their loans [12][14] - This policy aims to provide individuals with a "fresh start," reflecting the growing number of defaults and the strain on banks [15] Broader Economic Challenges - The rising default rate is indicative of broader economic issues, including unstable incomes and a lack of confidence in the future [17] - Policymakers are grappling with a "trilemma" of promoting consumption, stabilizing housing prices, and reducing debt, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously [18][19]