FII(SH:601138) Quan Jing Wang·2025-11-05 05:52Core Viewpoint - The current AI wave is creating a dichotomy in the market, with major tech companies increasing capital expenditure while facing pressure from short sellers [1] Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - The current enthusiasm around AI is fundamentally different from the internet bubble of the late 1990s, as today's leading AI companies are large, profitable, and have strong balance sheets [2] - Key differences include the scale and profitability of AI companies compared to the small, loss-making companies during the internet bubble [2] - AI demand is supported by clear orders, with Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligations increasing by 51% to $392 billion and Alphabet’s Cloud backlog growing by 46% to $155 billion [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - Concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure development are unfounded, as evidence suggests that AI infrastructure is currently in a phase of accelerated expansion [4] - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditure, with Meta raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $70-72 billion, and Alphabet increasing its guidance from $85 billion to $91-93 billion [4] - Industrial Fulian reported a stockpiling amount exceeding 160 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The focus for investors is on identifying segments with clear demand and performance, with "picks and shovels" companies like Industrial Fulian being particularly attractive [5] - Industrial Fulian's net profit for the first three quarters reached 22.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.52%, nearing last year's total [5] - The AI server business has shown explosive growth, with revenue from GPU AI servers increasing over 300% year-on-year in the first three quarters [5][6]