房价下跌或成真？一线2万、二线8000、三四线4000，可能实现吗？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a profound transformation, with significant declines in both sales and prices observed in 2022, indicating a shift from a wealth-generating engine to a struggling sector [1][3][4]. Market Trends - In November 2022, 51 out of 70 major cities in China saw a month-on-month decline in new residential property prices, while 62 cities experienced a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating that over 70% of the new housing market and nearly 90% of the second-hand market are under price pressure [4]. - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November 2022 amounted to 67,268.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.1%, highlighting the market's downturn [4]. Economic Impact - The decline in the real estate market is attributed to a retreat in speculative investment demand and adverse macroeconomic conditions, including repeated pandemic impacts that have strained the real economy, leading to layoffs and reduced income expectations for residents [4]. - Many families have postponed their home-buying plans due to these economic challenges, severely suppressing market demand [4]. Price Predictions - There are aggressive predictions circulating that suggest future price drops could see first-tier city prices fall to 20,000 yuan per square meter, second-tier cities to 8,000 yuan, and third/fourth-tier cities to 4,000 yuan, representing potential declines of over 60% to 70% from current levels [6]. - Current prices in first-tier cities range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per square meter, indicating that such drastic reductions would require unprecedented declines [6]. Stability Concerns - The likelihood of a "cliff-like" price drop in the short term is considered extremely low due to several factors, including the real estate sector's critical role in the national economy and the potential for government intervention to stabilize the market [7]. - A significant drop in housing prices could lead to severe financial risks, including increased defaults on mortgages, which would burden banks with unsold properties and could trigger systemic financial risks [7]. - The real estate industry is interconnected with numerous sectors, providing substantial employment and contributing to local economic development; thus, a sharp decline in property prices could have widespread negative effects [7].