美银：市场波动率上升预示泡沫正在形成，但仍处于早期阶段

Core Insights - The recent market phenomenon of "rising stock prices and increasing volatility" is an early sign of an asset bubble driven by artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - Despite the emergence of bubble signals, the current market may still be in the early stages of this bubble, as indicated by several volatility metrics [9][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of the S&P 500 index and VIX futures is increasingly frequent, contrasting with the typical negative correlation between the two [2][3] - This "spot-up, vol-up" dynamic is historically a hallmark of asset bubble formation [3][8] Group 2: Individual Stock Vulnerability - Individual stock volatility is sharply increasing, particularly among large tech stocks, as evidenced by Meta's 11.3% drop on October 30, which was approximately 8.3 times its historical realized volatility [5] - Amazon's stock rose by 9.6% on October 31, with volatility around 5.5 times its historical levels [6] Group 3: Volatility Indicators - The VIX index is currently around 15, which is close to its long-term median of 17.60, indicating that it is not at extreme levels [9] - The realized volatility of the Nasdaq 100 index remains relatively controlled compared to the peak levels during the internet bubble, which averaged 93% [12] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Given the assessment that the AI bubble may continue to expand, investors are advised to use options for asymmetric exposure, such as selling VIX put options to construct zero-cost S&P 500 call spreads [13] - Additionally, a longer-term strategy includes buying S&P 500 upward variance to directly capitalize on both delta and volatility, capturing the ongoing bubble expansion [13]